Recent polling averages show Democrat Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in the Alaska U.S. Senate race under ranked-choice voting, with margins typically ranging from 2 to 7 points across surveys conducted in September and October 2026. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins maintains a clearer advantage over the leading Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson and other GOP contenders, often by double digits in head-to-head or multi-candidate polling. These trends, combined with Alaska’s ranked-choice system that favors vote consolidation for the sole major-party Democrat in each contest, underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic sweep. Ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the Senate contest as a toss-up or lean Democratic while viewing the governor’s race as competitive but tilting Democratic, with limited late shifts reported in the final weeks before November voting.