Marilyn Crawford holds a commanding lead in the Ajax, Ontario mayoral market due to her extensive record of elected service, including multiple terms as deputy mayor and regional councillor for Ward 1, plus prior school board leadership. Incumbent Mayor Shaun Collier opted not to seek another term, creating an open contest among five certified candidates after nominations closed in August. Crawford’s prior vote shares exceeding 80 percent and her roles on regional committees such as Durham Transit have shaped trader assessments of her path to victory. Ashmeed Khan, a former councillor, and the remaining contenders trail with far less established municipal profiles. Advance voting begins October 19 ahead of the October 26 election, with no public polls available to alter the current consensus.