Nigeria's established squad depth and historical dominance in African football underpin the 60.5% implied probability for the Super Eagles to claim the non-host qualification spot in Group L, even after a 3-0 loss to Guinea-Bissau that handed the latter a six-point lead after two matchdays. Guinea-Bissau's 21.3% pricing reflects their strong opening results, including victories over Tanzania and Nigeria, while Madagascar and Tanzania sit on one point each following draws. With Tanzania already qualified as co-host, only the top non-host advances, and upcoming November fixtures plus Nigeria's expected return of key players like Victor Osimhen shape trader views on whether the early setback proves decisive or temporary.