Mali leads Group K in AFCON 2027 qualifying with a 65% implied probability, driven by their stronger overall squad depth, recent continental experience, and consistent results in the opening windows. Both Mali and Rwanda sit atop the table with six points after two matches, as Mali defeated Cape Verde 3-1 and Liberia 1-0 while Rwanda edged the same opponents 2-1 and 3-1. Rwanda’s early form has supported its 17.9% chance, yet Mali’s higher FIFA ranking and talent pool give traders greater confidence in their path to top the group. Cape Verde (12%) and Liberia (2.1%) trail with zero points and face tougher remaining fixtures, including the November double-header between Mali and Rwanda that will likely decide the group leader. The top two advance, with outcomes hinging on form, home advantage, and injury management across the final four matchdays.